How Trading Works

Overview

OddsForge is a prediction market platform on BNB Smart Chain (BSC) where you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Every market poses a simple question — and you express your view by buying Yes or No outcome shares. If your prediction is correct when the market resolves, each share pays out $1. If you're wrong, your shares expire worthless.

All trades are executed on-chain through an automated market maker (AMM), so there's no order book and no counterparty to wait for. You can enter or exit a position instantly at the current market price.

Buying Yes or No Shares

When you open a market on OddsForge, you'll see two options:

• Buy Yes — You believe the event will happen.
• Buy No — You believe the event will not happen.

Each share is priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The price reflects the market's current estimated probability of that outcome occurring. A Yes share priced at $0.40 means the market collectively estimates roughly a 40% chance the event will happen.

What Share Prices Represent

Share prices on OddsForge directly correspond to implied probabilities:

• A share priced at $0.20 implies a 20% probability.
• A share priced at $0.75 implies a 75% probability.
• A share priced at $0.50 implies a 50/50 toss-up.

Prices move dynamically as traders buy and sell. When more people buy Yes shares, the Yes price rises (and the No price falls). This creates a real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimate.

Example Trade Walkthrough

Let's walk through a complete trade from start to finish:

1. You find a market: "Will BNB reach $1,000 by December 2025?" — Yes shares are currently priced at $0.40.
2. You buy Yes shares: You spend $40 (before fees) and receive 100 Yes shares at $0.40 each.
3. The event happens: BNB does reach $1,000 by December 2025, and the market resolves to Yes.
4. You redeem your shares: Each Yes share pays out $1.00, so your 100 shares are worth $100.
5. Your profit: $100 payout − $40 cost = $60 profit (before fees).

Selling Before Resolution

You don't have to wait for a market to resolve to realize gains or cut losses. OddsForge lets you sell your shares at any time before the market resolves, at the current market price.

For example, if you bought Yes shares at $0.40 and the price has risen to $0.70, you can sell immediately and lock in your profit — without waiting for the final outcome.

This flexibility means you can actively manage your positions, take profits when the market moves in your favor, or exit early if new information changes your view.

Profit and Loss Calculation

Your profit or loss on any trade is straightforward:

• If the market resolves in your favor: Profit = ($1.00 − Purchase Price) × Number of Shares − Fees
• If the market resolves against you: Loss = Purchase Price × Number of Shares + Fees
• If you sell before resolution: Profit/Loss = (Sell Price − Purchase Price) × Number of Shares − Fees